Dear senior RE,

I am junior RE, I just finished capture uncertain parameters in my reservoir model. I did static and dynamic model by myself. Condition : There are 7 flow units clastic rock, undersaturated, no natural fracture, and mature field.

During static modeling phase, I generate 3 Facies model ( consist of 4 rock type), 2 Porosity/permeability each facies model, 3 groups of OWC (P90, P50, P10). these uncertain parameters could give me range of oil in place.

I have 15 years production history. limited on rates and several points of BHP from PLT. Now, in dynamic model I have 2 additional uncertain parameter. SWCR and SOR. I have Sor data from SCAL, it ranges from 0.56 to 0.2 . to meet oil cumulative field production in simulation case, I must adjust Swcr and Sor depend on OWC (example : in P90 OWC I must choose higher Swcr & lower Sor).

so, there are 5 uncertain parameters.
1. Facies Model (3 realizations)
2. Oil Water Contact (3 realizations)
3. Poro/Permeability (2x @ facies realizations)
4. Swcr (depand on OWC)
5. Sor (depand on OWC)

now please advice me what should I do to quantify my most likely case, before I do manual history matching.

Many thank...

Sjat