production profile- reservoir model and well decline profile in excel.

[vinomarky]

If you are willing to assume/WAG values for variables such as;
- Appropriate BCF or drainage radius per Well required for field development,
- mmscf/day capacity per well,
- manually enter a drill schedule that takes into account logistical realities as well as production decline
- EUR & Abandonment rate/THP
- CGR

then you can surely get something along the lines of what you outline

I think where our lines are getting crossed is the notion that a generic sheet would calculate all of these for you - this will not be the case.

[Shakespear]

Maybe I have the wrong end of the stick here but I know Chevron already use a similar model to come up with a basic first cut.

As to can I give you a simple spreadsheet that takes into account all fiscal regimes... is a resounding yes. It wouldn't give you NPV correct to two decimal places, it would give you maybe a +- 30% accurate answer. Thats the kind of thing I am looking for. In RE terms that probably is +- 200% but I am willing to live with it. The first estimates on a field before anything is drilled will be wrong anyways. There is no way G&G and RE comes up with a correct view of a green field development in a frontier play without drilling even a well.

The assumptions that Chevron has in its spreadsheet are ones that CHEVRON CAN live with. If you took their spreadsheet and applied it to your company that may not be true. Why? Because the assumptions about resources to develop (drilling, facilities etc.) may be not be true for your company. I am thinking along the lines of what vinomarky says here

"- manually enter a drilling schedule that takes into account logistical realities as well as production decline "
This is serious money here. If your over optimistic and it takes longer to develop because you can not get the rigs there, can not build the pipeline fast enough, permits take longer than you assumed ...... And your job will be short with them. This is where pure experience comes in. People buying in MUST HAVE GOOD experience or else you will pay through the nose !!!! The other sides wants AS MUCH as possible, you want to pay as little as POSSIBLE. Experience can give you the edge with this.

Have a look at this paper to see how some reservoirs can look

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