Esimating production profile for untested fields .. when you know only some basic par

[catapam]

There is a way (software, book, paper) that can be used to estimate production profile for untested fields.
Assuming you can give some basic parameters (size, depth, pressure, porosity, permeability, water saturation….)

Thanks

[vinomarky]

You are entering the realm of uncertainty here - there are no hard-fast rules - instead you should gather as much information about the field and offsets as you can to draw some conclusions

Let's assume it is an oil field
Do you expect depletion drive or aquifer support? How strong an aquifer? -> Directly affects RF (ie aquifer improves), but in terms of decline parameters your depletion would be closer to exponential while aquifer would have more hyperbolic shape. Is it more likely to be edge water or bottom water? What is the likely distance to water?

Is the geology more homogeneous or heterogeneous/layered? If the latter, in conjunction with aquifer this could drive your RF down further and hyperbolic exponent up above 1 even (due to water breakthrough in select layers)

What do analog fields produce like? - shape and EUR/Max rate per well?

Of course the size of the play and estimated number of wells, kh per well, lateral and vertical connectivity etc will factor into it as well

Gather all your data and play out in your mind the likelihood of various scenarios of connectivity / water drive type, direction and strength / container size etc and create appropriate declines with these assumptions borne in mind (just used hyperbolic / exponential decline profiles with initial online rate potential and EUR/well assumptions). You'd probably then want to overlay possible development scenarios in terms of timing of the wells and possible acceleration of recovery (with associated reduced EUR/well - you may want to do declines by sand unit rather than well) with possible infill drills - just depends how complex you want to go

Good luck

[catapam]

And if we assume a gas field?
Let's say is a dry gas with no water influx. How can I estimate production profiles?
How long is the platou. How can I figure out what decline I should use after platou ending?
Could I use decline for a gas field?

[vinomarky]

Assuming the gas field has reasonable perm, this is probably the the simplest scenario. You can pretty well assume exponential decline (ie straight line rate vs cum).

Use your analogs/kh estimates/volumes etc to determine max rate potential per well and total EUR
As you add more wells, the total rate will go up but the EUR will stay the same (not really correct, but if you have decent perm it is a reasonable simplifying assumption for scoping)
Overlay desired plateau rate, such that the rates you calculate are truncated to a max of the plateau rate

Just work it through, it should take no more than 30-mins or so to construct the spreadsheet - the hard part is working out what the EUR and max rate potential per well are

[reservoirengineer]

EUR and Max rate: If the data is available (pressure, porosity, permeability, water saturation), could it be possible to do simple Well performance model in Prosper to estimate Well's IP/ PI? Benchmark it with regional analog or offset wells.

Assuming the gas field has reasonable perm, this is probably the the simplest scenario. You can pretty well assume exponential decline (ie straight line rate vs cum).

Use your analogs/kh estimates/volumes etc to determine max rate potential per well and total EUR
As you add more wells, the total rate will go up but the EUR will stay the same (not really correct, but if you have decent perm it is a reasonable simplifying assumption for scoping)
Overlay desired plateau rate, such that the rates you calculate are truncated to a max of the plateau rate

Just work it through, it should take no more than 30-mins or so to construct the spreadsheet - the hard part is working out what the EUR and max rate potential per well are

[vinomarky]

Absolutely - the name of the game here is to come at the problem from as many different angles as you can - probabilistic, deterministic, analogs etc, throw everything on the wall and see what seems generally consistent

Important to bear in mind though the the max potential online rate is theoretical - essentially an AOF (with lift curves) - which I usually find by plotting analog wells rate vs cum and extrapolating back to zero produced volume. You will never achieve these rates (would probably induce downhole failure with sand production etc if you tried), but if you overprint a reasonable plateau rate everything plays out ok

[petroengineer]

Devmodel is a program used to assist in production forecasting for different field development scenarios and to project waterflood recovery and production profiles for different waterflood patterns and models. Devmodel is comprised of four models: Oil Field Development Model (FDM); Dry Gas Field Development Model (DGM); and Wet Gas Field Development Model (WGM) and Pattern Waterflood Development Model (WDM). It is a freeware program thanks to the generosity of Eastex Petroleum Consultants Inc. Enjoy it. Petroengineer.

[catapam]

Devmodel is a program used to assist in production forecasting for different field development scenarios and to project waterflood recovery and production profiles for different waterflood patterns and models. Devmodel is comprised of four models: Oil Field Development Model (FDM); Dry Gas Field Development Model (DGM); and Wet Gas Field Development Model (WGM) and Pattern Waterflood Development Model (WDM). It is a freeware program thanks to the generosity of Eastex Petroleum Consultants Inc. Enjoy it. Petroengineer.

I have 2 instalation errors.
See atachements.
Could you provide some help?

[don-canada]

This is from my website (

[link Point to another website Only the registered members can access]
Someday I will fix it!