production profile- reservoir model and well decline profile in excel.

[Shakespear]

Hi Guys,

The idea is to be able to see a new acquisition or merger opportunity and be able to act quick. I am trying to base it on the general kind of information that will be available for such opportunities initially.

like seismic (interpreted)?
maybe a GIIP value?
sometimes a EUR.?

I want to be able to take this information and do a quick and dirty valuation. (This is just to understand potentially if an opportunity exists till the geo, PE and cost engineers can analyse data and come up with a development scenario.)

It also helps me understand whats going on in project meetings and not look completely dumb)))

[link Point to another website Only the registered members can access] Here is a quick cut of what I have done till now. ( I have marked questions in red.) ... maybe this will give a good idea??

OK dumdum, from the above I suspect that you are very new to this. Don't take this negatively but just an assessment of what you have said above.

If I was doing a "quick" evaluation than it might look like this in terms of the information I have.

1) I have little, then I need
- a map of estimated reservoir extent
- estimate of Oil/Gas in place
- estimated recovery coefficient (conservative estimate) for the field

From this I can get an idea of how much I will produce from this field. If you want cash flow then you will have a problem as you have no well production data to even get an idea of how a well will produce in this field. So now you will need to do "magic", guess based on near-by fields or doing simple math (drainage radius expected, number of wells that would fit in your map of the field, some decline rate ) of what you think wells will be producing like here.

2) I have info in 1) plus logs and three wells producing.

Now you can get a "type well" for the field. Perhaps do a kh map and tie that to the kh of the producing wells. Using drainage radius, estimate where you will drill additional wells, estimate there the kh, and scale production expected from these well to be drilled to those that are already producing.

3) I have 1) plus 20 wells.

Now you will do what you did in 2) but you will need to look closer at the producing wells to see "what they were doing", well histories. Why did they producing the way they did? Why the down times? What workovers were done? What problems did they have? What is in the well that they lost, because in the details you may find that the wells is down due to junk in the hole, casing collapse, tubing lost in the hole, or corrosion problems...... DETAILS that are important to understand what this field is all about !!!!!! This means READING and understanding intervention reports on wells which are written in "insider" language. Without this you may run into HUGE PROBLEMS !!!!!!

This is needed to see what remaining production you can expect of exiting producers in the future,if something is left to produce from shut-in wells, if workovers will bring production online for wells shut in, if unperfed zones exist that could bring in additional production ....


Material Balance - you need pressure data, but if it exists this is never plug and play. Questions that come up are, when were they taken, how were they taken, with what were they taken, where were they taken .....?

Once you are clear on pressure, you move on to average reservoir properties and PVT properties. More thinking and probable sensitivity studies to see how things change with the input uncertainty. MB is looking at the reservoir as though it was a huge barrel, one porosity, thickness etc.

Doing MB will require more work and requires more data to be good. With two wells MB won't be any better than doing 1) or 2).

Perhaps others can chip in here to suggests other ideas.

But from my perspective "understand potentially if an opportunity exists" requires logs, map of reservoir extent, some wells producing

[vinomarky]

Agree - I think the Bard has outlined a good summary.

[dumdum01]

OK dumdum, from the above I suspect that you are very new to this. Don't take this negatively but just an assessment of what you have said above.

If I was doing a "quick" evaluation than it might look like this in terms of the information I have.

1) I have little, then I need
- a map of estimated reservoir extent
- estimate of Oil/Gas in place
- estimated recovery coefficient (conservative estimate) for the field

From this I can get an idea of how much I will produce from this field. If you want cash flow then you will have a problem as you have no well production data to even get an idea of how a well will produce in this field. So now you will need to do "magic", guess based on near-by fields or doing simple math (drainage radius expected, number of wells that would fit in your map of the field, some decline rate ) of what you think wells will be producing like here.

2) I have info in 1) plus logs and three wells producing.

Now you can get a "type well" for the field. Perhaps do a kh map and tie that to the kh of the producing wells. Using drainage radius, estimate where you will drill additional wells, estimate there the kh, and scale production expected from these well to be drilled to those that are already producing.

3) I have 1) plus 20 wells.

Now you will do what you did in 2) but you will need to look closer at the producing wells to see "what they were doing", well histories. Why did they producing the way they did? Why the down times? What workovers were done? What problems did they have? What is in the well that they lost, because in the details you may find that the wells is down due to junk in the hole, casing collapse, tubing lost in the hole, or corrosion problems...... DETAILS that are important to understand what this field is all about !!!!!! This means READING and understanding intervention reports on wells which are written in "insider" language. Without this you may run into HUGE PROBLEMS !!!!!!

This is needed to see what remaining production you can expect of exiting producers in the future,if something is left to produce from shut-in wells, if workovers will bring production online for wells shut in, if unperfed zones exist that could bring in additional production ....


Material Balance - you need pressure data, but if it exists this is never plug and play. Questions that come up are, when were they taken, how were they taken, with what were they taken, where were they taken .....?

Once you are clear on pressure, you move on to average reservoir properties and PVT properties. More thinking and probable sensitivity studies to see how things change with the input uncertainty. MB is looking at the reservoir as though it was a huge barrel, one porosity, thickness etc.

Doing MB will require more work and requires more data to be good. With two wells MB won't be any better than doing 1) or 2).

Perhaps others can chip in here to suggests other ideas.

But from my perspective "understand potentially if an opportunity exists" requires logs, map of reservoir extent, some wells producing

Hi Shakespeare,

I suspect this is very much based on the 1st scenario you have. From the above analysis you have kindly provided, it seems the second and the third scenario is both out of my reach and time limit for this project.

I would like to know how to create this "magic". If I do know ( the reservoir area, the estimated Oil/Gas in place and finally the recovery coefficient), how can I then figure out a production profile for the field. In a way, is there a way to "optimise" this to say 1. get the most recovery, 2. highest plateau rate etc. (Be able to play around with the number of wells required?)

Many Thanks,