DumDum,
Okay, I assume you have a gas sales agreement (GSA) in developing the field, is that correct? If so you should have a DCQ (Daily Contracted Quantity). Now all that needs to be done is drill sufficient wells initially to exceed the DCQ rate, and then drill additional wells to continue to meet the DCQ as existing wells decline (assuming you are on land). So, the number and timing of wells is simply a function of how many wells you need to meet the DCQ, and how often you need to drill / or bring an additional well(s) on line to compensate for the decline of existing wells. Offshore you will drill significant excess initial capacity above the DCQ given the costs and logistical issues involved in offshore drilling, you will most likely drill additional wells in batches assuming your platform has the slots etc. and this obviously impacts NPV etc.
Thus your individual well modeling i.e. rate and ultimate recovery will determine the number of wells required and associated drilling timing. At this level the uncertainty in the assumptions you have made in individual well modeling, far outweighs any accuracy that a solver in excel will give you on the optimal number of wells.
Chee Koh Peh



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