Water cut delay

[vinomarky]

Implicit in changing mobility ratios of course is not only visc changes, but also rel perm changes....

You have not explained why you can't alter the vertical perm

[vinomarky]

So I just took a look at your deck

First observation, you have a kv/kh ratio of 0.28 which is quite a bit higher than I would have thought would be realistic for 10m vertical blocks of 70mD rock. Kv/kh of 0.1, 0.05 or less is more in line with reality unless you have massive clean sand units.

Second observation, you have only 4 layers of 10m thickness (very coarse), your well is completed in the upper three layers, and your WOC is at the very top of the 4th layer...... and you didn't expect instant water? What would you think would happen in reality if someone perforated right to the WOC?

Even dropping the WOC to the bottom of the 4th layer (to give yourself some standoff) I'd still expect quick simulated WC increase due to numerical dispersion in the coarse blocks (ie a single block separating your well from the water)

If you really cant change the grid dimensions/granularity, and if you cant reduce PERMZ or apply a MULTZ then rel perm is about you only credible lever left, but bear in mind that while you may be creating a scenario which yields the sorts of delays you are after, it most likely would not properly reflect reality.

You make no mention as to whether this is a real scenario or not, why you are unable to change perms and whether that extends to vertical perms (an easy way to reduce coning)

[Tejaswy]

Thanks vino,
I just increased the density of water to 64, put the well way at the top of layer 2 and used Implict. I have a watercut of 0.05 at 2 years. That's fair enough I think. i wonder what my guide will think of it