Probabilistic Calculation

[petro_student]

Hello I am new here, as the user name suggest I am a 3rd yr petroleum student.
I am having problems. I was given the data Area, H, Phi, Sw, Eg, RF of 51 different wells.




I already calculated the GIIP and Reserves for each well
So basically I have to construct a Probabilistic Calculation Diagram and the lecturer hinted Monte Carlo. I have no idea what is this

Then we have to calc P50, P90, and P10 which is the reserves-probable, proven and possible.

The lecturer then hinted Tornado Chart. I dont know this either

He also said that he want to know the software the engineer would used in making these Probabilistic type Calculation calculations

Does anyone knows what to do or can anyone help and any help would be appreciated.
You can direct me to books to help me in these calculations and to better understand calculating reserves .

Thank You for Your help in advance

[barbod]

You may use the user manual of Petrel or Irap RMS for a background on uncertainty analysis in reserve calculation. If the lecturer recommended you to construc tornado chart then it would be better to use Irap RMS. After that, you can come back and ask...

[twitoil]

The main commercial probability analysis software used in the industry is called @Risk. It is a Microsoft Excel add-on, and is relatively very easy to use.

The software will allow you to conduct Monte Carlo simulation and derive tornado charts (which are just a way of showing the results of the sensitivity analysis).

A 15-day trial version is available at

[link Point to another website Only the registered members can access]
Good luck!

twitoil

[link Point to another website Only the registered members can access]

[horidclo]

Great little topic.
And Nice work--thank you for sharing- for me this makes perfect sense though.