I would like to find an informative material based on multiple real cases analyses that will show typical uncertainty ranges for estimating reserves during different stages of field life like Discovery, Appraisal, Development, Plateau, Decline for different Hydrocarbon reservoirs. The real cumulative is available after field is abandoned but how is this number vs initial P10-P50-P90 estimation?
This of course, depend a lot on amount of the data you have. As example if you made a discovery with a good quality 3D seismic, excellent logs and downhole fluid samples, good analogs then you expect to start with a smaller P10/P90 range (like P10/P90 ~ 2.5) than in a field where you have only some 2D seismic lines, fewer logs, surface sampling and so on (here initial P10/P90 ~ 5). Of course my numbers are just examples. Any thoughts?